Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 94489.566354 99615.067162 104735.387767 110230.883212 115958.532548 121748.630943 128040.711112
2025-06-22 86425.413095 94305.808137 102394.086366 111305.549127 120837.516432 130716.666036 141718.699894
2025-06-29 80079.394410 89809.552430 100012.455455 111486.811645 124009.161526 137237.999166 152247.090842
2025-07-06 75069.784547 86161.759073 98003.632717 111550.705128 126582.292318 142712.322150 161291.727637
2025-07-13 72156.830635 84481.673916 97843.804588 113353.589631 130805.401782 149779.594405 171911.783687
2025-07-20 69563.259990 82921.101880 97605.112059 114871.948868 134543.851092 156180.890645 181699.675403
2025-07-27 66935.411989 81132.124908 96939.826098 115751.641241 137429.169145 161525.074536 190230.155521
2025-08-03 64136.495287 78982.798536 95715.933904 115854.666817 139310.218293 165640.284907 197300.144371
2025-08-10 61786.077331 77230.020017 94835.871417 116248.397076 141435.357248 169966.770452 204568.098616
2025-08-17 59465.891372 75400.963680 93765.696466 116325.673389 143112.508848 173717.539599 211133.470707
2025-08-24 57980.087677 74494.088177 93717.819898 117550.396955 146091.531740 178955.987547 219427.927349
2025-08-31 55866.019561 72738.110510 92577.399962 117399.413767 147379.850053 182169.417573 225321.699104
2025-09-07 54795.248146 72237.621560 92941.306676 119066.506330 150871.141790 188041.826173 234454.205257
2025-09-14 53400.496661 71283.544818 92711.039674 119980.227789 153438.893987 192819.761398 242314.396149
2025-09-21 51707.928464 69893.851418 91890.356813 120121.548298 155031.192867 196407.807471 248747.082078
2025-09-28 50077.359237 68523.434599 91040.370913 120177.995826 156480.879629 199799.623699 254936.367399
2025-10-05 49431.935007 68379.346117 91697.108074 122090.686327 160210.042197 205965.737536 264520.852322
2025-10-12 48689.083891 68077.167211 92128.871328 123702.822198 163559.750572 211677.211430 273580.087066
2025-10-19 47680.235034 67392.154030 92043.610107 124636.939563 166048.305481 216330.575598 281358.997274
2025-10-26 46355.805585 66250.488278 91336.387548 124746.320069 167475.516267 219660.657398 287508.716806
2025-11-02 45231.186817 65337.564971 90892.137797 125164.431224 169273.041737 223442.331732 294225.827766
2025-11-09 44016.411183 64267.320266 90210.421199 125246.490672 170620.760755 226651.396379 300232.797863
2025-11-16 43366.693546 63936.437485 90477.673106 126546.962062 173522.604635 231817.305192 308714.080467